Brexit talks begin in Brussels

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20 June 2017

Written by
Matthew Ryan

Senior Market Analyst at Ebury. Providing expert currency analysis so small and mid-sized businesses can effectively navigate international markets.

The Brexit negotiations officially started yesterday when the chief UK negotiator, David Davis, met his EU counterpart, Michel Barnier, in Brussels.

terling’s reaction to the event was rather muted and after climbing up during the first hours of London trading, the Pound lost all its gains versus the US Dollar and ended the session below its opening level, dragged down by the general rally in the currency.

Investors are still wary of the political risks in the country and they continue to hold short Sterling positions. Bets on website, however, are less concerned about the prospect of Theresa May’s resignation from the office. The prospect of retaining the Conservative Party leadership through the 31st of July is as high as 70%.

FOMC’s Dudley optimistic about the US economy

The US Dollar climbed against the Euro after the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, struck a dovish tone during his speech in Plattsburg. He emphasised that the US is “pretty close” to full employment, and appeared to dismiss the recent drop in inflation readings stating that “inflation is a little lower than what we would like, but we think that if the labor market continues to tighten, wages will gradually pick up and, with that, inflation will gradually go back to 2 percent”.

Today, we expect more speeches from Feds’ officials – Vice President Stanley Fischer, Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan. Apart from that investors might take some direction from the US current account balance for the first quarter of the year.

Macron wins France for the third time despite low turnout

Mere weeks after winning the presidential election, 39-year-old Emmanuel Macron solidifies his position on the French political scene. His party, La Republique en Marche (LREM) won at least 350 of 577 seats in the French Parliament, comfortably securing the majority.

Macron’s success comes with a “collective failure” of French political class as he referred to the low turnout in the second round. Participation fell to a record low with only 43% of citizens deciding to head to the polls on Sunday.

The Euro, however, took little comfort in the news, and ended the London session lower against most major currencies.

Today’s second and third-tier data from the Eurozone should be overlooked by investors who should focus on another set of speeches from FOMC members in the US.